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Best elections data available.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Best elections data available.
    Posted: 27 September 2012 at 3:02pm
I figured since we're just shy of one month out, it'd link to FiveThirtyEight.com, probably the best continuously-updating collection of aggregated elections/polling data available. 

Now that I know things about survey research and statistics, I feel like I appreciate Silver's work way more this election than last election. 


Edited by agentwhale007 - 27 September 2012 at 3:02pm
"So when Romney wins in a landslide, what will the liberal media do?"
This Ma**edited**hine Kills **edited**as**edited**ists.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2012 at 3:59pm
Why does the major media keep posting polls that are +9 democrat?...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oldpbnoob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2012 at 4:07pm
Originally posted by FreeEnterprise FreeEnterprise wrote:

Why does the major media keep posting polls that are +9 democrat?...
Because they are the ones available? The Rasmussen one is mentioned, but some doubt is mentioned as to its reliability..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stratoaxe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2012 at 8:59pm
If I've been reading correctly, the Rasmussen poll is the only one not giving.Obama the 9 point lead.

I know nothing of reliability when it comes to polls because I find polling in general to be a very unscientific method of reporting anything, but I don't know why you'd pick the one dissenting poll out of a half dozen others to report on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 11:03am
No, you guys are missing what I am saying. 

The polls have been weaponized to help Obama. Just like the "fact checks" are so partisan now a days, that they almost always slam on the Republican while repeating democratic talking points. 

If you are going to do a poll, you are supposed to mimic what you will see on election day. These polls that show Obama up are only because they are skewing the number of democrats voting vs the number of independents and republicans...

For example 

Florida:

In 2004 the vote was R+4.  

In 2008 the vote was D+3 

CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.


So 9 more democrats will vote than before according to our "non" partisan polling... That has never happened. EVER. And yet, they don't publicize that fact, they just say, hey look Obama is up by 9... because we skewed the poll to have 9 more democrats than have ever voted...


Ohio: 

In 2004 the vote was R+5 

In 2008 the vote was D+8 

CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9


Pennsylvania: 

In 2010 the vote was D+3 

In 2008 the vote was D+7 

CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.


http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/09/26/BREAKING-Democrat-Voters-Turnout-Advantage-Over-Republicans-Will-Break-All-Time-Records

So by asking more democrats in a poll, shockingly they get more people voting for Obama... Problem is,  the independents are swinging towards Romney. 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/09/27/Romney-Winning-Swing-State-Independents-Media-Ignores


They do this to make republicans think they are done for, and hope that less will show up to actually vote... Or figure, "ah, it doesn't matter, Obama has it in the bag". When as usual they are just throwing out propaganda, and you guys buy it like it was polls in the old days before it became something controlled by the left. 



Oh btw, if Obama doesn't like your companies polling numbers. The justice department might open an investigation into  your company. 

http://markets.cbsnews.com/cbsnews/news/read/22211431/daily_caller

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote evillepaintball Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 1:27pm
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/19/obama-has-edge-over-romney-in-three-battleground-states/

Fox polls are showing almost the same thing, but whatever helps you sleep at night.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote usafpilot07 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 2:29pm
This is what happens when the GOP nominates a joke of a republican. Sigh
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 3:16pm
No, this is what happens when people skew the numbers. There is no way that democrats will outvote republicans by +9. It has never happened. 

The liberals want you to think Romney is a poor candidate. 

He isn't, that is just the media bias skewing your opinion. 

I wonder who fox news donates too?...

hmm. but, but, but, I thought fox was conservative...


The media wants Obama to win. They will do anything in their power to make that happen. Period. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote usafpilot07 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by FreeEnterprise FreeEnterprise wrote:

No, this is what happens when people skew the numbers. There is no way that democrats will outvote republicans by +9. It has never happened. 

The liberals want you to think Romney is a poor candidate. 

He isn't, that is just the media bias skewing your opinion. 

I wonder who fox news donates too?...

hmm. but, but, but, I thought fox was conservative...


The media wants Obama to win. They will do anything in their power to make that happen. Period. 


Wait, what?

I don't watch mainstream news. My opinion of Mitt Romney is entirely my own. I'm more than capable of deciding my own feelings about a candidates track record, I even have a shiny, worthless degree that says I went to college to understand it.

Spew all the conspiracies you want, but don't delude yourself into believing that everyone who isn't in lockstep with you is some brainwashed sheep of the left or the media.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 3:54pm
It isn't that at all, remember that book I mentioned last year about how our viewpoints on politics are skewed by the media. Well our perception of republicans is also skewed by the same information. 


that is what I was talking about. I wasn't insulting your intelligence or ability to think. I was just pointing out that you have never met Romney, and yet you have a distinct view of him...

That view you have was shaped by the media coverage you have seen of the guy...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote usafpilot07 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:05pm
Originally posted by FreeEnterprise FreeEnterprise wrote:

It isn't that at all, remember that book I mentioned last year about how our viewpoints on politics are skewed by the media. Well our perception of republicans is also skewed by the same information. 


that is what I was talking about. I wasn't insulting your intelligence or ability to think. I was just pointing out that you have never met Romney, and yet you have a distinct view of him...

That view you have was shaped by the media coverage you have seen of the guy...


My views on him are based solely on his track record as a CEO and governor. I don't watch debates, actions speak louder than words. Romney has done nothing to impress upon me that he's any better than the dead weight we have in office right now. Am I going to vote for Barry? Hell no. But am I going to vote for Romney? I don't know.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:11pm
What negative actions as a CEO did he do to make you think that?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote usafpilot07 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:26pm
Originally posted by FreeEnterprise FreeEnterprise wrote:

What negative actions as a CEO did he do to make you think that?


It would actually be his actions as a governor outweighing his actions as a CEO 30 years ago.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:48pm
Why did you say his CEO track record then?...

What actions did you disagree with when he ran his state? 

I'm not picking on you, I'm actually curious.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote usafpilot07 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 6:09pm
Originally posted by FreeEnterprise FreeEnterprise wrote:

Why did you say his CEO track record then?...

What actions did you disagree with when he ran his state? 

I'm not picking on you, I'm actually curious.


Because his success as a consultant and CEO are part of what I take into consideration when evaluating how I feel about the candidate for "my" party.

I don't want to write a book about the faults I find with Mitt, but I'll jot down at least a few things.
  • The 1.5B he claims to have cut from the budget in Mass was not entirely a cut. He increased all sorts of fees and raising prices for state funded services. Many that directly affected small business, which I'm surprised doesn't bother you greatly.
  • He benefited from an income based off previous tax raises very similar to what the Obama camp has done regarding the repayment of TARP funds
  • He disguised implementing NEW taxes as "closing loopholes."(online purchases, sales taxes, massive taxes on commercial properties, etc)


I won't even start discussing the disaster of a healthcare system he spearheaded in Massachusetts, or the fact that it was at least partially an effort to keep his state dependent on Medicaid.

Edited by usafpilot07 - 28 September 2012 at 9:20pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jmac3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2012 at 9:11pm
Oh hi USAF. Thank you for not being as lazy as me and saying that about Romney.
Que pasa?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote StormyKnight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 October 2012 at 4:36pm
Mitt Romney bumper sticker:
 
I'm not a Conservative, but I campaign like one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kendall Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 October 2012 at 6:15pm
Vote for me. I hate almost everyone. Now that's progressive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 October 2012 at 11:46am
Regardless of what Mitt has done, it is still so much better than more Obama... 


Oh lookie, people think the polls are propaganda at alarming rates. 


I wonder why they think that?...


"Under oath, Hickman admitted that in the final weeks of Edwards's 2008 bid, Hickman cherry-picked public polls to make the candidate seem viable, promoted surveys that Hickman considered unreliable, and sent e-mails to campaign aides, Edwards supporters and reporters which argued that the former senator was still in the hunt —even though Hickman had already told Edwards privately that he had no real chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

"They were pounding on me for positive information. You know, where is some good news we can share with people? We were monitoring all these polls and I was sending the ones that were most favorable because [campaign aides] wanted to share them with reporters," Hickman testified on May 14 at the trial in Greensboro, N.C. "We were not finding very much good news and I was trying to give them what I could find."

Hickman testified that when circulating the polls, he didn't much care if they were accurate. "I didn't necessarily take any of these as for—as you would say, for the truth of the matter. I took them more as something that could be used as propaganda for the campaign," the veteran pollster said."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lightningbolt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 October 2012 at 12:07pm
These people are going to lie and skew and we know this.waste of time listening to them.
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