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20,000 missiles dissapear

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    Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:01pm
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/nightmare-libya-20000-surface-air-missiles-missing/story?id=14610199

Buahahahahahahahahaha.

So, Libya was worth the fight?


Edited by impulse418 - 27 September 2011 at 6:02pm
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Skillet42565 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Skillet42565 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:08pm
Yes, helping a people gain self determination is good despite your paranoid tinfoil hat crap.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brihard Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:11pm
Skillet, this (surprisingly) is not 'paranoid tin foil hat crap'. A bunch of missing shoulder fired SAs is actually potentially a big deal. The one good thing is that these missiles have a limited shelf life, and require some training to use effectively. But I for one am actually concerned.

I still deem Libya to be worth the effort, of course.
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Yup, he actually said that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:20pm
Shelf life? I'm sure they can use a few before they expire.

Training? If they are anything like Stingers, I'm sure a few people in Afghanistan know how to operate them.

I would not want to be a helicopter pilot in Afghanistan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Skillet42565 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:34pm
The Libyans are probably selling them to people closer than Afghanistan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oldsoldier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:42pm
Soviet and post Soviet designs are not as technical as western models. The electronics 'shelf life' is short (batteries and storafge concerns, too much moisture circuit boards go, too long in moist inviornment solid propellant in rocket motors degrades. So one Joe 'Terrorist' gets ahold of one after going through how many hands, there will be issues with a good percentage of them. SA-14's probably the prominant design are pretty fragile, have a complex firing sequence requiring training, and a smaller warhead than comparable western designs.
Also the SA-14's IR seeker is old school so more modern counter measures on military aircraft will make this an easy evade for a prepared crew, plus the signature of the launch and massive smoke trail from primary rocket motor make it easy to track and counter.

Now the French Mistral SAM differant animal, but far fewer in Libyan hands. Still a third gen IR missile, with again a large launch and flight signature.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 6:57pm
Originally posted by Skillet42565 Skillet42565 wrote:

The Libyans are probably selling them to people closer than Afghanistan.


The arms dealer will sell them across the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote StormyKnight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 7:45pm
Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

So, Libya was worth the fight?
I'm with Impulse with this.  I'm not sure I like the way we pick and choose whom we assist when the people start rising up only to get squashed.  When Iran's people started rising up and deadly force was used against them, where was our President?  Did he immediately denounce the violence against the Iranian people by their government?  Did he offer the support of the United States?  No.  Nary a peep from the White House.  So, why Libya?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ArthurBignose Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 7:55pm
Originally posted by StormyKnight StormyKnight wrote:

Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

So, Libya was worth the fight?
I'm with Impulse with this.  I'm not sure I like the way we pick and choose whom we assist when the people start rising up only to get squashed.  When Iran's people started rising up and deadly force was used against them, where was our President?  Did he immediately denounce the violence against the Iranian people by their government?  Did he offer the support of the United States?  No.  Nary a peep from the White House.  So, why Libya?


Obviously it's because we want their oil.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GroupB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 8:03pm
So you are of the opinion that we should help everyone or no one?  Why don't we just help who we can?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stratoaxe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 8:23pm
Originally posted by GroupB GroupB wrote:

So you are of the opinion that we should help everyone or no one?  Why don't we just help who we can?


There's a problem with this though.

While I don't think it should be anyone or no one, when the government picks and chooses who it helps, the public would like to know the overriding motivation.

So when we let some uprisings get crushed without so much as a word of support and immediately intervene in others, it calls to question the morality behind the assistance.

We're in a period, especially after the wikileak affair, people are suspicious of our support systems. The question of why we went to war in Iraq has never been fully answered, we've seen instances of the US sending billions of support to sworn enemies, we know for a fact that we funded figures in the 80's that turned against us in the 90's, so the public is looking for some transparency in the foreign affairs department.

I don't think that's necessarily something that can or needs to happen, but that's the push, and every time we get involved in a new conflict the question of "why this one and not that one" pops up. Let's not even get started on the various conflicts in Africa that seem almost ignored by the militaries of the world. Again, I'm not saying that there's a sinister overriding plot, I'm sure there are reasons the average citizen is unaware of, but the question will be raised.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Reb Cpl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 8:38pm
I call shens.

I suspect that whomever is behind the creation and institution of the laser defense system that's proposed for the wide bodied commercial jets could have had a hand in the creation of this story.

20,000 SAMs don't just walk away.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oldsoldier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 9:00pm
Unfortuanately yes they do 'walk away'. After the fall of the wall the Soviet soldiers as well as commanders had virtual 'yard sales' in weapons from rifles to tanks in order to pay and feed the Soviet troops still in East Germany. The amount of unaccounted for AT (RPG) as well as SAM-7's were in the 10's of thousands. Now imagine the caos of Libya, the multitude of factions, the massive amounts of stored weapons now unguarded. Three people with a pair of bolt cutters and a pick up can 'walk away' with a few hundred SA-7's or 14's quite easily with no accoutability, stash em and return multiple times before something or someone catches on. The sale of these weapons along the North African coastal regions resident radicals, or the usual Somali or other East african strongmen will be a boomming trade.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deadeye007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 9:10pm
I'm sure this is just phase 2 of Operation Fast and Furious
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lightningbolt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 9:14pm

Originally posted by deadeye007 deadeye007 wrote:

I'm sure this is just phase 2 of Operation Fast and Furious

You guys are talking about a new movie?  Is Vin Diesel in it?

Sent from a phone booth
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 September 2011 at 11:21pm
Originally posted by deadeye007 deadeye007 wrote:

I'm sure this is just phase 2 of Operation Fast and Furious

Haha. If so, El Paso is about to get a lot more interesting. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ParielIsBack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2011 at 12:14am
Quote Though Libya had an estimated 20,000 man-portable surface-to-air missiles before the popular uprising began in February, Assistant Secretary of State Andrew Shapiro told ABC News today the government does not have a clear picture of how many missiles they're trying to track down.


I suggest looking up CJ Chivers reporting on this issue, it's very informative.  The only thing that's known right now is that lots of missiles are missing, and not how many.  It's almost certain that thousands of missiles were used during the conflict, but the serviceability and number of missiles that have been handed off is a big unknown at this point.

Also, in the grand scheme of things MANPADs aren't difficult to deter.  They have relatively short range, and are only particularly dangerous to fixed-wing aircraft on landing and takeoff, or military aircraft performing close air support.  Helicopters are a good target for them, but not generally good political targets.

As OS pointed out, the battery systems for the SA-7 and SA-14 can greatly reduce shelf life, as they're difficult to maintain without training and somewhat finicky.


Edited by ParielIsBack - 28 September 2011 at 12:18am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kayback Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2011 at 1:14am
This is not how one looks after SA-7's or SA-14's.




Also, commercial airliners are harder to take down with MANPADS due to their multi engine design. Most modern ones can climb away on a single engine.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2011 at 8:30am
So for those of you who know these kinds of things: How much would these missing missiles collectively weigh? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rofl_Mao Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 September 2011 at 9:03am
Mmmm, missiles. I can has one?
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