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A Grim Prediction

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DeTrevni View Drop Down
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    Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:34pm
So I was talking to my instructor during my blueprint reading and sketching class (I'm going for a certification in machining) and he said he thought that there simply will be no more books in 20 years. Do y'all think this might actually happen?

I'm not sure myself. I know a lot of people like reading, but it does seem that the number who read for enjoyment is dropping. Also, electronic media is definitely taking over printed media. I myself MUCH prefer reading for any extended period of time from a book as opposed to a screen. I really don't want books to go bye-bye.

So, should I build up my library now, or is this paranoia?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote merc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:37pm
they are closing the paper mill down here thats been open since the 1800s...

if thats any indication...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FarSeer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:40pm
All you have to do is look at the success of Amazon.com's Kindle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tallen702 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:47pm


books aren't going anywhere anytime soon. It will be another 50 years at least before digital books fully integrate into our schools and work. Let alone reading for pleasure.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Reb Cpl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:48pm
No way will books be gone within 5 years. There's still quite a market for leisure/research reading. I'm going to call paranoia on this one. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote High Voltage Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:50pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nickman98 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 5:50pm
me to i can barely deal with reading the news online, i couldnt imageine trying to read books for pleasure on a screen 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote __sneaky__ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 6:02pm
I love reading, And there are many readers still around. However the number of readers has dropped significantly in recent memory. On top of that, now we have things like the kindle, and the Sony reader, which is thinning out the market to an even greater extent. It wouldn't surprise me to be honest.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stratoaxe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 6:24pm
Replacing books with electronic media isn't going to be a 5 year process...it's not like moving from VHS to DVD...were talking hundreds of years and millions of books.

I'd say it'll be several decades before books are even fully replaced on an educational level. Hell even recreational reading is still going strong, and electronic media is still too pricey for alot it people.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ParielIsBack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 6:29pm
Originally posted by stratoaxe stratoaxe wrote:

Replacing books with electronic media isn't going to be a 5 year process...it's not like moving from VHS to DVD...were talking hundreds of years and millions of books.

I'd say it'll be several decades before books are even fully replaced on an educational level. Hell even recreational reading is still going strong, and electronic media is still too pricey for alot it people.



This.

I don't think Tallen was far off with 50 years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote StormyKnight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 6:30pm
This is a hard concept to grasp.  There is more to reading than just processing text.  It is an experience of turning pages, actually feeling and smelling the paper.  I just can't see books not being produced anymore.  I think something would be lost in the translation while reading from electronic media.  For some reason I don't think my imagination would be as stimulated.  The world just wouldn't be right anymore without actual books.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 7:10pm
Originally posted by StormyKnight StormyKnight wrote:

. . . There is more to reading than just processing text.  It is an experience of turning pages, actually feeling and smelling the paper. . . . something would be lost in the translation while reading from electronic media. . . .  my imagination would be as stimulated.  The world just wouldn't be right anymore . . . .


Would you and Mr. Book like some alone time?  Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fuzzey5-0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 7:28pm
Originally posted by merc merc wrote:

they are closing the paper mill down here thats been open since the 1800s...

if thats any indication...



The Franklin paper mill- you must not be far from me then.

Just read the book "Farenheit 451" by Ray Bradbury to get an idea...

Books will always be around. But having a good library is a good idea to have, for future generations of your family.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 7:29pm
Newspapers, however, will be dead in five years. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ParielIsBack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2009 at 7:46pm
Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:

Newspapers, however, will be dead in five years. 


Part of that it just volume though.  Yesterday's news isn't interesting or useful today.  Books, leedle different.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeTrevni Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 12:27am
I don't know where y'all got the "5" from. The guess was 20 years. :P

But I'm not concerned about past publications, to be honest. I doubt those are going anywhere. It's future publications that have me concerned. Obviously, if no new books are being printed, eventually age will get current books, but that's a long term thing. There's just something that seems ominous to me about ceasing production of printed books.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote choopie911 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 1:52am
Hahaha, no.
We're supposed to be the "paperless generation" but we use more than ever.
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I donít have one either. Is that good???

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shub Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 2:02am
Keep an eye on the educational sector. They are the ones who are most desperately trying to get rid of books, in the "printed on dead trees" sense of the word. Turns out, in cutting edge fields, printing books is a tough proposition, when the information in the books is only relevant for a few years at best.

Several states, most notably Virginia, have plans to develop new plans for text books, written in a Creative Commons environment, and being printed on demand.

Meanwhile, Sony's e-book readers and the Amazon Kindle are going to be having more competition in the near future, as Barnes and Noble are releasing their similar ebook reader, the Nook, and several other companies are currently designing devices for release in the upcoming year or so.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote StormyKnight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 2:54am
Originally posted by Mack Mack wrote:

Originally posted by StormyKnight StormyKnight wrote:

. . . There is more to reading than just processing text.  It is an experience of turning pages, actually feeling and smelling the paper. . . . something would be lost in the translation while reading from electronic media. . . .  my imagination would be as stimulated.  The world just wouldn't be right anymore . . . .


Would you and Mr. Book like some alone time?  Big smile
I think you have Mr. Book and Miss Magazine confused with one another.  BTW Mack, how do you get two pages apart after they get stuck together?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Guy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 4:41am
how good are the pictures on a Kindle?

Books are more portable than a computer, and they have better illustration than any other media right now.
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