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DeTrevni View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeTrevni Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 4:47am
Well, all in all, my biggest concern will be the fate of the novel.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 7:30am
Ain't gonna happen.
 
Here is why.
 
1st all "readers" need batteries, which run out. Also, readers are expensive. Sure lots of people will go to them, but if you leave a reader on the beach, it will end up getting ruined.
 
Leave a book on the beach, who cares... You got to read it, and if it gets wet/sand in it, you pitch it.
 
Newspapers were referenced, and people that like papers, will read them until they die off. So to place a 5-20 year window is just silly. I personally don't read papers, but my brother in law does... (I prefer todays news today, instead of tomorrow).
 
Maybe the future generation it will go away, but not this generation.
 
Plus, many people like to have books, I personally have a very extensive library. I sold two of my books a few years back and used the money to finish my basement... So, some books are extremely valuable, and they won't go away.
 
As a printer, I'm always hearing that printing is going away. Many times "on demand" is brought up.
 
On demand is good for short runs, as the cost for 200 books printed digitally is pretty good compared to conventianal printing.
 
But, you try and print 200,000 books on demand, and your costs are outrageous per book...
 
I am printing a childrens book right now, and I looked at digital vs conventional very carefully on this project.
 
Conventional printing beat it by far, and the quantity was only 2,000.
 
 
 
 
Its kind of like the whole high definition dvd's will elminate regular dvd's. And digital music players will elminate cd's.
 
And yet they are still here...
 
I don't see it happening. Blue ray dvds cost more, the players cost more, and a regular dvd looks great... When I put in my theater I put in a regular dvd player... And I'm just fine with the quality.
 
Mp3 players break, and hard drives crash, and if you only have a digital file, instead of a cd... your music in many cases is gone...
 
Most guys I know that love music want the cd so they have the paper printed inside... Which you don't get with a download.
 
 
 
 
Ask your teacher why people still have home phones? When they could just go to a cell phone instead...


Edited by FreeEnterprise - 12 November 2009 at 7:32am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Benjichang Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 November 2009 at 11:10am
Too many people, myself included, still frequently read books.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fuzzey5-0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 3:21pm
My mother has a kindle...

it's only in black and white as far as I know, but the illustration is excellent. It even bookmarks your page, as you read it. It's really a cool piece of gadgetry.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 3:24pm
Originally posted by StormyKnight StormyKnight wrote:

Originally posted by Mack Mack wrote:

Originally posted by StormyKnight StormyKnight wrote:

. . . There is more to reading than just processing text.  It is an experience of turning pages, actually feeling and smelling the paper. . . . something would be lost in the translation while reading from electronic media. . . .  my imagination would be as stimulated.  The world just wouldn't be right anymore . . . .


Would you and Mr. Book like some alone time?  Big smile
I think you have Mr. Book and Miss Magazine confused with one another.  BTW Mack, how do you get two pages apart after they get stuck together?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brihard Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 3:34pm
FE, just because there will be some newspaper diehards, doesn't mean they will be enough to sustain the industry. I don't have the numbers (I imagine Whale does) but there's only a certain decrease in readership a newspaper can withstand before it becomes unprofitable. Once that happens, the paper cannot help but fold, and quickly. Papers can only be kept on life support for so long.

DVDs will get replaced by high def, simply because that's what technology does. Costs come down, market and corporate forces push newer tech in. Recall how expensive DVDs were at first compared to VHS. VHS is now, for all intents and purposes, dead. Vinyl still has a small niche market, but atrack and cassettes are dead and CDs are having a harder and harder time competing with digital music.

Books, now, I don't think have much to worry about in the forseeable future. There's just something about picking up and reading a book that a digital device cannot compete with. I can't do lengthy reading on a screen without my eyes and head eventually getting tired and/or sore. Academic media has largely gone digital, but for your average work of fiction or non fiction you're far more likely to pick it up and read it (and pay for it) if it's in a printed format than if it's on a nameless server somewhere.

The human 'attention span' for books seems to be much longer than for digital writing. I can sit down in a comfy chair with a book and be dead to the world for hours. The same amount of reading will not get done on a digital device.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FreeEnterprise Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 4:23pm
guess you forget beta, laserdisks, and newtons...
 
How about those nifty bag phones.
 
 
Newspapers will survive by selling their content based on web hits in the future, similar to google today. By putting out content that viewers actually are interested in, and selling ad space for the numbers, they will find a revenue stream that is profitable. (some are already doing this).
 
But, they won't "go away" in our lifetimes...
 
Stuff changes, but the desire for content is the trick. As a printer, people will aways need a printed something. Even if we were all digitally wired, you would still have to crack open a manual to figure out how your wireless device works.
 
The whole case reminds me of people saying the electric car will eliminate the gas engine...
 
Yeah, that will happen... Not in this lifetime or the next, as guys love gas.
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I donít have one either. Is that good???

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shub Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 5:02pm
Yes, there are always bad technologies that don't stand up to the test of time, like the laserdisc, but e-ink based readers are actually quite nice, and gaining in popularity, although Amazon is tight lipped about Kindle sales figures.

For those that have never tried one, these things aren't backlit screens like a computer monitor or cell phone screen, so they aren't hard on the eyes like trying to read small text on a cell phone. The screens are actually similar to the "screen" of an etch-a-sketch. They give the user the option to change font size, and the batteries last for weeks, since they use no battery power to display the screen contents, just when they flip pages.

And FE, your newspaper argument may be true on a small level...I think some forward thinking newspaper companies may be able to transition from printing daily newspaper to digital distribution of their content. But I don't think a lot of current newspapers are currently unwilling or unable to change their business models, and even some large city daily papers are doing layoffs in their newsroom.

I'm not saying that printing will go away, but we're already seeing a world where people don't want physical media. BluRay disc players and disc sales aren't as high as manufacturers expected or would have liked, but that doesn't mean that people have no interest in high definition video, it's just that streaming video does the same thing without the need to buy discs. CD sales are in the tank, but iTunes is selling music like there's no tomorrow.

There are always people who want the physical thing. Whether it's the book, or an actual CD with the title page in a jewel case. But more and more, the masses just want the content. Digital tracks off music stores, movies and tv shows streamed or downloaded from the internet, etc. It is convenient, sometimes cheaper, often more environmentally friendly, and it appeals to our need for instant gratification.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reifidom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 5:33pm
There is still quite a bit of debate regarding the ecological impact of e-readers, particularly how many e-books you would have to read to offset the environmental impact of producing and powering the reader and e-books versus producing physical books.

Amazon is also mum about the carbon footprint of a Kindle and it's as yet unclear what the lifespan will prove to be, although battery and electronic recycling programs help considerably.

I'd like to try a Kindle for more than a few pages of in-store trial, but it's not at the top of my list.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Uncle Rudder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 6:16pm
No way in hell are books going to gone in 20 years.  The turn-over rate in biology and chemistry fields is ~20 years.  They tried a trial run with online books here 3 years ago.  Gave you access to the online copy for free and everyone still said it sucked a fat one.  And it really did, I couldn't read an entire chapter without getting a massive headache.  There will still be books, I'd bet my house on it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jerseypaint Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 6:53pm
I haven't read for pleasure in years. I've always been meaning to read or reread certain books, but just never got around to it since when I have extra time, books are usually the last thing I think about doing. I've always had a special relationship with books. I usually read on my own because I want to or have to, not because I like to.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MeanMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 7:08pm
Whoever said books are more portable... Wrong!

You could have hundreds of books in the size of "one book."
Also, I hate the smell of books.

They'll be around for a while, but the education books will he the first to go. One multimedia object with a one time high cost with cheaper-than-a-book download will be very enticing. Especially if you can make digital notes on them.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ParielIsBack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 11:45pm
Originally posted by MeanMan MeanMan wrote:

Whoever said books are more portable... Wrong!

You could have hundreds of books in the size of "one book."
Also, I hate the smell of books.

They'll be around for a while, but the education books will he the first to go. One multimedia object with a one time high cost with cheaper-than-a-book download will be very enticing. Especially if you can make digital notes on them.


Many textbooks are already available in digital form.

It's turned out that it's hard to sell them as just that, so they're generally bundled with a hard-cover version as well, for slightly more money.

I know of no one who buys them.

Not saying you won't be right in the future, but that's certainly not right now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Frozen Balls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 11:53pm
Reading a book on a computer is one of the more irritating things in life...

A few pages for a course is fine, a 700 page book is not fine. At all.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MeanMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2009 at 11:59pm
Originally posted by Frozen Balls Frozen Balls wrote:

Reading a book on a computer is one of the more irritating things in life...

A few pages for a course is fine, a 700 page book is not fine. At all.
 
How often do you really use a textbook for large readings? Talking to other, older college students, they say that very rarely have they really read much in their books.
 
In my first semester, the most I have read at one time is probably 15 pages of skimming. I know that will not be the case in all of my classes that I will be taking, but a few pages here and there would be fine with me.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 November 2009 at 12:23am
Originally posted by brihard brihard wrote:

I can't do lengthy reading on a screen without my eyes and head eventually getting tired and/or sore.


This is an issue for me as well.  Anything of any length that I need to read off the internet gets printed out.  (There are spotted owls out there right now losing their forest homes because of me.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tallen702 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 November 2009 at 12:47am
Originally posted by FreeEnterprise FreeEnterprise wrote:

guess you forget beta, laserdisks, and newtons...

Betamax was merely a fore-runner to a cheaper and more widely available child technology which was VHS (and the pr0n industry decided that outcome for us). Laserdisks were the fore-runner to DVDs and the Apple Newton spawned the Palm Pilot which spawned the various other Palms which spawned the blackberry which spawned the iPhone, so it all comes full circle now doesn't it?

Quote How about those nifty bag phones.

What? You mean those nifty early cell phones which, as technology got better, shrank in size to the small pocket-sized contraptions we all carry today?

Quote
Newspapers will survive by selling their content based on web hits in the future, similar to google today. By putting out content that viewers actually are interested in, and selling ad space for the numbers, they will find a revenue stream that is profitable. (some are already doing this).


But, they won't "go away" in our lifetimes...



But what you're saying is that newspapers will merely transfer to electronic media rather than printed media. Which means you're countering your original argument that tangible printed media won't go away.

Quote
Stuff changes, but the desire for content is the trick. As a printer, people will aways need a printed something. Even if we were all digitally wired, you would still have to crack open a manual to figure out how your wireless device works.

Really? have fun finding a hard-copy of the iPhone 3G or 3Gs manual. They don't exist in paper form.

Quote
The whole case reminds me of people saying the electric car will eliminate the gas engine...


Yeah, that will happen... Not in this lifetime or the next, as guys love gas.


Actually, guys love horsepower which you can get far more out of an electric motor than an internal combustion engine. Hybrid vehicles may not be the death-knell of the internal combustion engine in automobiles, but the electric motor WILL eventually cause the cessation of the production of new internal combustion engines for automobiles within the next 75 years. Hydrogen fuel cells will ultimately spell doom for the gasoline engine.


Edit:

To chime in on the HD DVD vs DVD end of the argument. The simple fact of the matter is that the majority of TVs in homes right now aren't capable of displaying the proper output resolution to make HD DVD or Blu-Ray look any better to the end user. The reason DVD caught on so quickly was that it didn't require an upgrade in a technology that essentially hadn't changed since the 1940's. People wouldn't mind shelling out the $100 it costs for a no-name blu-ray player these days if they didn't have to shell out hundreds more for a tv capable of producing the resolution necessary to show the hi-def images. Furthermore, with the advent of High-Definition streaming video and dedicated video servers such as Netflix Online, the need for a stand-alone player is becoming obsolete. The age of the all-in-one family computer that has been promised to us for decades now, is finally becoming a realization. I would guess that within the next two generations of consoles, MS/Nintendo/Sony will all offer consoles that not only play games and allow you to go online as well as stream video, but they will also be able to host apps like MS Office Suite, image manipulation software, etc. I honestly believe that my children will write their essays and do their homework on their Xbox.

The only reason that the technology regarding books is taking longer is due to the fact that it isn't multi-faceted. I do think, however, that upcoming Nintendo hand-held devices as well as smart phones and tablet PCs will probably start offering the ability to be used as a kindle-type platform for reading.

Further Edit:

DeTrevni, the novel isn't going anywhere a century of cheap motion pictures hasn't been able to kill the "reading as entertainment" sector, the move to a digital platform won't do it either.

I will add that the assimilation of the world's libraries into the digital realm is moving far faster than you'd believe. 6 years ago I was searching for an out-of-print book by Arkady and Boris Strugatsky and found it archived, in it's entirety, in English, at the St. Petersburg Public Library. As the copyright was out of date, I was allowed to simply copy and paste it into word and take it to the local Kinko's and have it printed and bound for $7.50

If they've already digitized 1970's Russian Science Fiction, they've definitely digitized a whole lot more than you'd have thought.

Edited by tallen702 - 14 November 2009 at 1:06am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote choopie911 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 November 2009 at 1:21am
FE: Disks are a horrible storage medium, you're a FOOL if you think they're here to stay.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jmac3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 November 2009 at 1:40am
So Tallen, you think your kids will write homework on an Xbox?

So basically you think computers are going to be remade?

Computers do everything consoles do already, and they do what you said would be added.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tallen702 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 November 2009 at 10:48am
Originally posted by jmac3 jmac3 wrote:

So Tallen, you think your kids will write homework on an Xbox?So basically you think computers are going to be remade?Computers do everything consoles do already, and they do what you said would be added.


What I think will happen (and what really is already happening) is that the line between console and computer is being blurred. Sony has said for years that their intention with the newer generations of consoles has been to integrate the playstation into the realm of personal computer. Yes, our everyday desktop PCs can do everything that a console can do, but most of their computing power is wasted on internet browsing and word processing. With the computing and pricing gap between consoles and PCs getting smaller and smaller, I think you're going to see the replacement of the conventional stand-alone PC with a console system that will perform the most popular functions that people use a home PC for.

This isn't to say that consoles will completely replace the PC. PC's will still be needed for work and for travel, but I do think that you'll begin to see tower systems start to fade out of popularity soon with all but the most demanding of jobs. Design professional (architects, engineers, lighting and electrical designers, programmers, program engineers, etc) will still need the massive computing power that is only available in tower PC form, but your average desk-jockey will wind up using a lap-top/tablet PC and docking station at work. I think that the consoles will probably not only feature certain common-use software packages (MS Office, Adobe Creative Suite, etc) but will be able to work as docking stations themselves allowing users to tap into the extra resources of the console's processor and facilitate the use of extra HDD space and better input and output options.

In essence, the family computer will be replaced by a console and the work computer will be replace by laptop or tablet PCs which will be able to dock with said console.

The gaming industry is already pushing us towards this solution. With the biggest FPS franchise in PC history dropping dedicated server support and essentially turning PC versions of their game into Xbox versions, the rest of the industry is sure to follow suit.
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