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Report: 2004 Election Corrupted

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goodsmitty View Drop Down
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    Posted: 05 April 2005 at 10:48am
Published on Friday, April 1, 2005 by the Akron Beacon Journal / Ohio
Analysis Points to Election 'Corruption'
Group Says Chance of Exit Polls Being So Wrong in '04 Vote is One-in-959,000
by Stephen Dyer
 

There's a one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election, according to a statistical analysis released Thursday.

Exit polls in the November election showed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., winning by 3 percent, but President George W. Bush won the vote count by 2.5 percent.

The explanation for the discrepancy that was offered by the exit polling firm -- that Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polling -- is an ``implausible theory,'' according to the report issued Thursday by US Count Votes, a group that claims it's made up of about two dozen statisticians.

Twelve -- including a Case Western Reserve University mathematics instructor -- signed the report.

Instead, the data support the idea that ``corruption of the vote count occurred more freely in districts that were overwhelmingly Bush strongholds.''

The report dismisses chance and inaccurate exit polling as the reasons for their discrepancy with the results.

They found that the one hypothesis that can't be ruled out is inaccurate election results.

``The hypothesis that the voters' intent was not accurately recorded or counted... needs further investigation,'' it said.

The conclusion drew a yawn from Ohio election officials, who repeated that the discrepancy issue was settled when the polling firms Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International disavowed its polls because Kerry voters were more likely to answer exit polls -- the theory Thursday's report deemed ``implausible.''

Ohio has been at the center of a voter disenfranchisement debate since the election.

``What are you going to do except laugh at it?'' said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, who's responsible for administering Ohio's elections and is a Republican candidate for governor. ``We're not particularly interested in (the report's findings). We wish them luck, but hope they find something more interesting to do.''

The statistical analysis, though, shows that the discrepancy between polls and results was especially high in precincts that voted for Bush -- as high as a 10 percent difference.

The report says if the official explanation -- that Bush voters were more shy about filling out exit polls in precincts with more Kerry voters -- is true, then the precincts with large Bush votes should be more accurate, not less accurate as the data indicate.

The report also called into question new voting machine technologies.

``All voting equipment technologies except paper ballots were associated with large unexplained exit poll discrepancies all favoring the same party, (which) certainly warrants further inquiry,'' the report concludes.

However, LoParo remained unimpressed.

``These (Bush) voters have been much maligned by outside political forces who didn't like the way they voted,'' he said. ``The weather's turning nice. There are more interesting things to do than beat a dead horse.''

2005 Beacon Journal and wire service sources

"Reading this thread, I'm sad to say that the only difference between the average American and the average Taliban is economic status."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bugg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 10:53am
I guess it was that one-in-959,000 chance then....

He won, kerry lost, thats all there is to it, I'm sure there was some fraud on BOTH sides, there always is, but hey, unless there is proof that it would have changed the election one way or another, forget it

**EDIT** haha, maybe april fools joke... look at date, maybe it's a 2-in-959,000!

Edited by Bugg
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote usafpilot07 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 10:53am
that doesnt mean the election is corrupted, just the predictions

an exit poll merely takes a poll of people leaving the polling places to use in a formula to GUESS who they think is going to win.

It has no actual affect on the outcome of the elections


Edited by usafpilot07
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dune Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 10:54am
We have learned from the election in 2000....it actually doesn't matter who wins, it's who gets inaugurated that matters.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bugg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 11:51am
something we can agree on
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rockerdoode Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 11:54am

Quote

one-in-959,000 chance that exit polls could have been so wrong

'nuff said

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whoknowswho Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 11:58am
Originally posted by usafpilot07 usafpilot07 wrote:

that doesnt mean the election is corrupted, just the predictions

an exit poll merely takes a poll of people leaving the polling places to use in a formula to GUESS who they think is going to win.

It has no actual affect on the outcome of the elections
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goodsmitty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:03pm

Originally posted by Dune Dune wrote:

We have learned from the election in 2000....it actually doesn't matter who wins, it's who gets inaugurated that matters.

The report tells me that my vote really doesn't matter, so why vote? I am saving my vote for the local school levy from now on. The presidential election is so rigged it's pathetic. Pathetically obvious.

"Reading this thread, I'm sad to say that the only difference between the average American and the average Taliban is economic status."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote merc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:07pm
get over it
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PlentifulBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:09pm
Originally posted by goodsmitty goodsmitty wrote:

Originally posted by Dune Dune wrote:

We have learned from the election in 2000....it actually doesn't matter who wins, it's who gets inaugurated that matters.

The report tells me that my vote really doesn't matter, so why vote? I am saving my vote for the local school levy from now on. The presidential election is so rigged it's pathetic. Pathetically obvious.



God, its friggin April. Kerry lost. Bush won. Who gives a  damn?  I'm not a Bush or Kerry supporter, they are both idiots.

OGM TEH LECTION ESH RIGGEDF!!!!!!! OH NOEZ.

Shut the hell up already.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Snipa69 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:28pm
Who honestly gives a shizzle anymore? We are well into the 05 year, and nobody cares. Bush is the president, this isn't going to cause any kind of impeachment or anything like that. So I have to ask, what is the purpose? Must have been a slow news day...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cedric Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:30pm
I have an idea. Maybe if we complain and **edited** enough, Bush will resign. **edited** off. No one gives a damn about your political threads anymore.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote :ShockeR_ratm: Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:36pm
holy crap just shut the hell up already

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Clark Kent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 12:40pm

Without reviewing the underlying study, I can state conclusively that if they merely applied probability analysis to the reported numbers from the exit polls versus the final vote (I don't know that this what they did, but it sounds a lot like it), then they did so in error, and their results are flawed.

Simply put, with any collection of data you have to apply sampling error - the chance that your sample just randomly varied from the underlying population.  This is a simple mathematical matter, and I am sure this group did that.  That discounts your results to some degree.

BUT - with a survey (such as an exit poll), you have to generally discount the results further.  Any psychologist will tell you that surveys are among the least reliable forms of data collection.  There are self-selection problems, recollection problems, honesty problems, misunderstanding problems, and generally a whole host of problems that make survey results more suspect.  This discount, unfortunately, is not usually subject to mathematical analysis, due to lack of data.  So it remains a guessing game.

Mathematical analysis can reveal the relationship between the REPORTED survey results and the final vote - it alone cannot reveal the accuracy of those survey results.

The fact that this group casually dismisses the very plausible explanation that Kerry voters may have been more likely to participate substantially diminishes their credibility.

This is precisely the reason why we count the official results and not the unofficial results.  Based on the article as written, I am not impressed.



Edited by Clark Kent
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goodsmitty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 1:01pm

Y'all seem to care enough to curse your very best!



Edited by goodsmitty
"Reading this thread, I'm sad to say that the only difference between the average American and the average Taliban is economic status."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dune Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 1:47pm

Originally posted by Cedric Cedric wrote:

I have an idea. Maybe if we complain and **edited** enough, Bush will resign. **edited** off. No one gives a damn about your political threads anymore.

Don't stop there, the more edited words you have in your post, the more you'll be respected.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bugg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 1:50pm
I guess the concensus is "Shut the hell up"....

We have the electoral college for a reason, and unless i'm wrong its congress that votes in it, so if you want a democrat for pres, get more democrats in congress.. and vice versa
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dune Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 1:52pm
I am not a fan of the electoral college, never have been, and I don't think I ever will be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bugg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 1:53pm
Well thats fine, but we are a republic, not a democracy, we vote for people to vote for us... don't like it, make a real democracy, but there are NONE

The electoral college is there so some huge cult doesn't coerce people into a pres
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DBibeau855 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 April 2005 at 1:54pm
Oh my god...
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